HQY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HQY - HealthEquity, Inc
$81.48
-1.03 (-1.25%)
▼
5d:
-0.2%
30d:
+6.52%
90d:
-12.84%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 08, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HQY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.8% annual earnings decline despite 92% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HQY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.8% annual earnings decline despite 92% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$142.58
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.53
8.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HQY is currently trading at $81.48, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.19 to $81.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.9) compared to its historical average (20.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 92.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HQY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $77.72, while resistance sits at $84.36.
Market Sentiment: HQY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.62 (+37.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HQY is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $77.72, while resistance sits at $84.36.
Market Sentiment: HQY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $111.62 (+37.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$77.19 -
$81.55
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.0% below Wall St target ($111.62)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$77.19 -
$81.55
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.72
Resistance Level
$84.36
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.95
Wall Street Target
$111.63
(+37.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.4%
Profit Margin
16.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 20.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.38
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$75.41
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$72.54
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$81.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 14.8%)
$153.56
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 14.8%)
$123.30
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 14.8%)
$104.80
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.46
Bull Case
$164.49
(+102%)
Analyst growth 84.6%, PE expands to 36.2
Base Case
$149.54
(+83%)
Market implied 84.6%, PE stable at 32.9
Bear Case
$55.09
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 20.1
Stabilization Target:
$91.26
(+12.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HQY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
1500 shares
2025-12-19
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SELL
10959 shares
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1500 shares
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