BTSG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BTSG - BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Common Stock
$57.87
-0.53 (-0.91%)
▼
5d:
+5.54%
30d:
+26.35%
90d:
+48.92%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 01, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
BTSG is up 8.8% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $45 2026-06-18 with 87 OI. Put ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.4/10
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1 traders called BTSG this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: BTSG is 7.6% above its trading range ($53.79). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: BTSG is 7.6% above its trading range ($53.79). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$102.87
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$63.87
9.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BTSG is currently trading at $57.87, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.28 to $53.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.6) is in line with its historical norms (26.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTSG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $58.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BTSG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTSG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $58.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BTSG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$45.28 -
$53.79
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
BTSG is technically overbought (RSI 75). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.6% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.53)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.28 -
$53.79
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$51.04
Resistance Level
$58.67
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.64
Wall Street Target
$60.53
(+3.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
359.8%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
27.6 vs 26.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.45
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$60.52
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$61.61
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$58.40
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.6, Growth: 25.9%)
$116.67
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 25.9%)
$93.04
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 25.9%)
$79.08
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 40.65 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.44
Bull Case
$70.52
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 42.7
Base Case
$58.40
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 40.7
Bear Case
$44.68
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 36.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 3:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BTSG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jennifer A Phipps
SELL
35000 shares
2026-03-04
Jon B Rousseau
SELL
220000 shares
2026-03-04
Lisa A Nalley
SELL
30000 shares
2026-03-04
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Advanced BTSG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BTSG price and gamma walls.
