HSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HSY - The Hershey Company
$194.75
4.21 (2.21%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HSY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HSY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$293.12
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$182.00
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HSY is currently trading at $194.75, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $182.03 to $195.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.0) is in line with its historical norms (27.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $188.79, while resistance sits at $201.86.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $188.79, while resistance sits at $201.86.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$182.03 -
$195.22
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($198.30)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$182.03 -
$195.22
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$188.79
Resistance Level
$201.86
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.01
Wall Street Target
$198.30
(+4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-38.2%
Profit Margin
11.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.0 vs 27.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$190.35
(0%)
2-Year Target
$190.16
(0%)
3-Year Target
$189.97
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→27)
$190.60
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.0, Growth: 17.6%)
$310.08
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 17.6%)
$256.01
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 17.6%)
$217.61
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.68
Bull Case
$223.03
(+15%)
Analyst growth 5.6%, PE expands to 31.6
Base Case
$202.76
(+4%)
Market implied 5.6%, PE stable at 28.7
Bear Case
$130.56
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.0 to 27.1
Stabilization Target:
$191.17
(+0.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.3%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 10:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2025-10-20
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2025-09-18
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