HUM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HUM - Humana Inc.
$166.00
-3.09 (-1.83%)
▼
5d:
-2.43%
30d:
-12.88%
90d:
-35.87%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
Smart Money Accumulation
HUM is down 5.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $220 2026-04-17 with 731 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HUM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HUM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -13.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$491.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$305.07
45.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HUM is currently trading at $166.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $168.15 to $183.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.9) compared to its historical average (16.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HUM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $163.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.17 (+27.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HUM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $163.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $212.17 (+27.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$168.15 -
$183.85
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.8% below Wall St target ($212.17)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$168.15 -
$183.85
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$163.11
Resistance Level
$175.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.86
Wall Street Target
$212.17
(+27.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-59.3%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 16.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.40
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$134.46
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$121.01
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→17)
$183.93
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 63.5%)
$1153.43
(+595%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 63.5%)
$560.25
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 63.5%)
$476.21
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.84
Bull Case
$290.42
(+71%)
Analyst growth 55.4%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$264.02
(+55%)
Market implied 55.4%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$115.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 16.5
Stabilization Target:
$252.30
(+52.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+52.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HUM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Sanjay K Shetty
BUY
810 shares
2026-02-23
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HUM price and gamma walls.
