UNH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UNH - UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INCORPORATED (Delaware)
$399.09
-2.07 (-0.52%)
▼
5d:
+7.94%
30d:
+27.08%
90d:
+40.34%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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12 traders called UNH this week
80% bullish • 3 bearish
80% bullish • 3 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UNH trades at premium valuation expecting 5.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: UNH trades at premium valuation expecting 5.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$510.69
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$317.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UNH is currently trading at $399.09, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $315.15 to $380.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.3) compared to its historical average (16.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.7% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNH is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $404.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UNH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UNH is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $404.15. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UNH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$315.15 -
$380.47
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
UNH is technically overbought (RSI 85). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($387.27)
- BEARISH: Market expects 5.7% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$315.15 -
$380.47
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$358.25
Resistance Level
$404.15
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.33
Wall Street Target
$387.27
(-3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.7%
Profit Margin
2.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.7% premium
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 16.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$424.03
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$448.20
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$473.74
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$401.94
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 13.0%)
$660.14
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 13.0%)
$578.96
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.4, Growth: 13.0%)
$491.21
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.26
Bull Case
$661.87
(+65%)
Analyst growth 56.5%, PE expands to 31.9
Base Case
$601.70
(+50%)
Market implied 56.5%, PE stable at 29.0
Bear Case
$261.42
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 4:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UNH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
8
Buys
8
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-20
Richard McCormick
BUY
2026-03-19
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