LOB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LOB - Live Oak Bancshares, Inc.
$39.96
0.46 (1.16%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LOB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LOB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$89.71
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$55.70
28.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LOB is currently trading at $39.96, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.18 to $38.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.5) compared to its historical average (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 347.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOB is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $36.19, while resistance sits at $42.89.
Market Sentiment: LOB has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.25 (+14.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LOB is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $36.19, while resistance sits at $42.89.
Market Sentiment: LOB has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.25 (+14.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$35.18 -
$38.84
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
48th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 48th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($45.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$35.18 -
$38.84
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.73
(6.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.19
Resistance Level
$42.89
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.52
Wall Street Target
$45.25
(+14.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
61.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
347.9%
Profit Margin
22.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 11.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.56
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$35.72
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$33.97
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$39.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 39.3%)
$249.95
(+533%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 39.3%)
$106.68
(+170%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 39.3%)
$90.68
(+130%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.23
Bull Case
$78.42
(+96%)
Analyst growth 86.1%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$71.29
(+78%)
Market implied 86.1%, PE stable at 17.2
Bear Case
$26.05
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$46.07
(+16.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.6%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LOB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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