MP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MP - MP Materials Corp.
$64.61
5.50 (9.30%)
▲
5d:
-3.18%
30d:
+17.54%
90d:
+2.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
14d
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18 traders called MP this week
90% bullish • 2 bearish
90% bullish • 2 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.02
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.67
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MP is currently trading at $64.61, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $56.23 to $67.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 102.8) compared to its historical average (84.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.50, while resistance sits at $72.93. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.08 (+22.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.50, while resistance sits at $72.93. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $79.08 (+22.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$56.23 -
$67.78
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+9.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 22.4% below Wall St target ($79.08)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.7% growth with -14.9% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$56.23 -
$67.78
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.50
Resistance Level
$72.93
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
102.80
Wall Street Target
$79.08
(+22.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-14.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-55.6%
Profit Margin
-50.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.7% premium
PE vs Historical
102.8 vs 84.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.94
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$73.56
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$78.49
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 103→85)
PE COMPRESSION
$64.59
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Last updated: February 04, 2026 12:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael Stuart Rosenthal
SELL
150000 shares
2025-08-29
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Advanced MP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MP price and gamma walls.
