NGG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NGG - National Grid PLC
$83.69
1.77 (2.16%)
▲
5d:
+1.99%
30d:
-10.75%
90d:
+7.79%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NGG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NGG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$137.76
Based on 9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$85.54
2.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NGG is currently trading at $83.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.35 to $92.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.8) is in line with its historical norms (14.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NGG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.61 (+10.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NGG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $81.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NGG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.61 (+10.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$85.35 -
$92.93
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($92.61)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$85.35 -
$92.93
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$81.45
Resistance Level
$91.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.85
Wall Street Target
$92.61
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.4%
Profit Margin
16.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 14.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.52
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$81.36
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$80.22
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
$83.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.4%)
$207.77
(+148%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 15.4%)
$128.76
(+54%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 15.4%)
$109.45
(+31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.96
Bull Case
$137.61
(+68%)
Analyst growth 52.6%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$125.10
(+52%)
Market implied 52.6%, PE stable at 20.7
Bear Case
$55.75
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 14.4
Stabilization Target:
$87.00
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NGG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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