NOV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOV - NOV Inc.
$18.56
-1.32 (-6.64%)
▼
5d:
-3.73%
30d:
-8.39%
90d:
+18.82%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
26d
Smart Money Accumulation
NOV is down 4.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $18 2026-04-17 with 1,088 OI. Call ratio: 91% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NOV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NOV shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.12
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.43
17.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOV is currently trading at $18.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.62 to $20.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.9) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.82, while resistance sits at $20.18. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: NOV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.82, while resistance sits at $20.18. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: NOV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$18.62 -
$20.08
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($19.90)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.62 -
$20.08
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.82
Resistance Level
$20.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.86
Wall Street Target
$19.90
(+7.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.7%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.9 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.45
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$18.34
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$18.23
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$18.52
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 24.2%)
$53.44
(+188%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.9, Growth: 24.2%)
$35.53
(+91%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 24.2%)
$30.20
(+63%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.39
Bull Case
$41.10
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 52.7
Base Case
$37.36
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 47.9
Bear Case
$12.70
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.9 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$18.86
(+1.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Craig L Weinstock
SELL
70000 shares
2026-02-23
Joseph W Rovig
SELL
151086 shares
2026-02-23
Christian S Kendall
BUY
70000 shares
2025-11-21
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Advanced NOV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NOV price and gamma walls.
