NSC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NSC - Norfolk Southern Corp.
$291.24
1.08 (0.37%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NSC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NSC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$359.06
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$222.95
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NSC is currently trading at $291.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $286.36 to $291.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.8) is in line with its historical norms (22.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $293.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NSC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $293.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$286.36 -
$291.65
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($310.63)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.0% growth with 1.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$286.36 -
$291.65
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$277.80
Resistance Level
$293.51
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.79
Wall Street Target
$310.63
(+7.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.9%
Profit Margin
24.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
22.8 vs 22.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$293.06
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$295.99
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$298.95
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→22)
PE COMPRESSION
$289.89
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.8, Growth: 6.0%)
$345.68
(+19%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.0%)
$338.24
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 6.0%)
$287.51
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 21.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.11
Bull Case
$303.88
(+4%)
Analyst growth -2.9%, PE expands to 23.9
Base Case
$276.26
(-5%)
Market implied -2.9%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$193.44
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NSC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Julie Johnson
SELL
2025-08-14
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