RACE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RACE - Ferrari N.V.
$327.20
9.80 (3.09%)
▲
5d:
-0.6%
30d:
-13.88%
90d:
-13.47%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
RACE is down 4.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $400 2026-05-15 with 1,061 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RACE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RACE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$373.74
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$232.06
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RACE is currently trading at $327.20, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $325.42 to $365.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 30.5) compared to its historical average (37.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RACE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $312.51, while resistance sits at $340.91. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: RACE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $442.18 (+35.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RACE is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $312.51, while resistance sits at $340.91. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: RACE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (13th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $442.18 (+35.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$325.42 -
$365.36
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
13th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 13th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 35.1% below Wall St target ($442.18)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$325.42 -
$365.36
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$17.55
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$312.51
Resistance Level
$340.91
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.53
Wall Street Target
$442.18
(+35.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-0.2%
Profit Margin
22.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.5 vs 37.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$306.91
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$287.88
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$270.04
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→37)
$327.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.5, Growth: 9.8%)
$433.52
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.8%)
$317.41
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 9.8%)
$269.79
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.26
Bull Case
$361.56
(+10%)
Analyst growth 4.5%, PE expands to 33.7
Base Case
$328.69
(0%)
Market implied 4.5%, PE stable at 30.7
Bear Case
$213.95
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.5 to 37.0
Stabilization Target:
$396.59
(+21.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RACE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced RACE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RACE price and gamma walls.
