LI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LI - Li Auto Inc. American Depositary Shares
$19.27
-0.75 (-3.75%)
▼
5d:
+9.49%
30d:
+6.11%
90d:
+2.5%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
20d
Smart Money Distribution
LI is up 13.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $17 2026-06-18 with 11,290 OI. Put ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.07
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.02
16.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LI is currently trading at $19.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.82 to $18.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 3.1) is in line with its historical norms (3.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.27, while resistance sits at $20.09. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: LI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.27, while resistance sits at $20.09. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: LI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$17.82 -
$18.94
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($21.23)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.8% growth with -35.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.82 -
$18.94
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.27
Resistance Level
$20.09
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.15
Wall Street Target
$21.23
(+6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-35.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-99.8%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.8% premium
PE vs Historical
3.2 vs 3.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.38
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$20.75
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$21.12
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→3)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.08
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 330.1%)
$472.03
(+2258%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.2, Growth: 330.1%)
$67.57
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.7, Growth: 330.1%)
$57.43
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (64x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 64.10 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.31
Bull Case
$24.17
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 67.3
Base Case
$20.02
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 64.1
Bear Case
$15.32
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 57.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 4:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LI price and gamma walls.
