RUN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RUN - Sunrun Inc
$19.00
-0.76 (-3.85%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
26d
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2 traders called RUN this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RUN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RUN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1.38
Based on -30.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.86
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RUN is currently trading at $19.00, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.96 to $20.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 41.2) compared to its historical average (24.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 19.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.49, while resistance sits at $21.95. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.18 (+12.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.49, while resistance sits at $21.95. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.18 (+12.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$17.96 -
$20.04
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($22.18)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 19.1% growth which is achievable
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.96 -
$20.04
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.49
Resistance Level
$21.95
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.18
Wall Street Target
$22.19
(+12.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
95.7%
Profit Margin
-106.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+19.1% premium
PE vs Historical
41.2 vs 24.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+19.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.53
(+19%)
2-Year Target
$28.03
(+42%)
3-Year Target
$33.38
(+69%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.78
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.2, Growth: -64.5%)
$14.41
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -64.5%)
$7.80
(-61%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -64.5%)
$6.63
(-66%)
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RUN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeanna Steele
SELL
4475 shares
2025-10-15
Jeanna Steele
SELL
21037 shares
2025-10-09
Jeanna Steele
SELL
1526 shares
2025-10-08
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