STX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STX - Seagate Technology Holdings PLC Ordinary Shares (Ireland)
$432.95
25.26 (6.20%)
▲
5d:
+20.84%
30d:
+57.21%
90d:
+61.35%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Jan 27, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
STX is up 20.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $280 2026-03-20 with 1,131 OI. Put ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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17 traders called STX this week
70% bullish • 7 bearish
70% bullish • 7 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: STX is 12.7% above fair value ($384.14). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: STX is 12.7% above fair value ($384.14). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$904.01
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$561.32
22.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STX is currently trading at $432.95, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $283.81 to $384.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.6) is in line with its historical norms (24.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 67.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $322.04, while resistance sits at $457.84. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: STX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $322.04, while resistance sits at $457.84. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: STX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$283.81 -
$384.14
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
STX is technically overbought (RSI 71). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+12.7% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($435.73)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$283.81 -
$384.14
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$322.04
Resistance Level
$457.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.57
Wall Street Target
$435.73
(+0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
67.7%
Profit Margin
19.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.6 vs 24.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$422.99
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$413.26
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$403.76
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→24)
$432.93
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.6, Growth: 48.2%)
$1410.58
(+226%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 48.2%)
$1393.73
(+222%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 48.2%)
$1184.67
(+174%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 36.76 | Forward EPS (Implied): $11.78
Bull Case
$522.79
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 38.6
Base Case
$432.95
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 36.8
Bear Case
$331.21
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 33.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.6 to 24.2
Stabilization Target:
$464.23
(+7.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.2%
Last updated: February 03, 2026 4:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ban Seng Teh
SELL
1410 shares
2025-10-13
William D Mosley
SELL
20000 shares
2025-10-01
John Christopher Morris
SELL
377 shares
2025-09-16
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