SWX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWX - Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc.
$89.24
1.73 (1.98%)
▲
5d:
+3.08%
30d:
-0.4%
90d:
+11.52%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SWX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SWX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$167.37
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$103.92
14.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWX is currently trading at $89.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.16 to $88.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.8) is in line with its historical norms (19.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SWX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $89.10. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: SWX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$86.16 -
$88.53
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($92.43)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$86.16 -
$88.53
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.51
Resistance Level
$89.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.79
Wall Street Target
$92.43
(+3.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.3%
Profit Margin
22.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 19.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.83
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$84.49
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$82.20
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$89.19
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 19.4%)
$175.68
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 19.4%)
$151.92
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 19.4%)
$129.14
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.25
Bull Case
$141.92
(+65%)
Analyst growth 54.4%, PE expands to 28.3
Base Case
$129.02
(+50%)
Market implied 54.4%, PE stable at 25.7
Bear Case
$56.83
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.8 to 19.3
Stabilization Target:
$96.82
(+8.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 9:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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