MDU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDU - MDU Resources Group, Inc.
$22.52
0.38 (1.72%)
▲
5d:
-1.23%
30d:
+3.49%
90d:
+11.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MDU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MDU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.80
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDU is currently trading at $22.52, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.71 to $22.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.1) is in line with its historical norms (19.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.98. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$21.71 -
$22.53
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($22.71)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with -10.2% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.71 -
$22.53
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.33
Resistance Level
$22.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.10
Wall Street Target
$22.71
(+2.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.1%
Profit Margin
10.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
21.1 vs 19.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.58
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$23.03
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$23.50
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.16
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 7.8%)
$29.04
(+31%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.1, Growth: 7.8%)
$27.77
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.9, Growth: 7.8%)
$23.60
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.92
Bull Case
$28.32
(+28%)
Analyst growth 14.1%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$25.74
(+16%)
Market implied 14.1%, PE stable at 24.5
Bear Case
$15.35
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Charles M Kelley
BUY
5000 shares
2026-02-13
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