MDU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDU - MDU Resources Group, Inc.
$20.71
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-4.56%
30d:
-0.58%
90d:
-1.52%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MDU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MDU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.40
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.64
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDU is currently trading at $20.71, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.83 to $21.63. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.6) is in line with its historical norms (20.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MDU has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.29 (+12.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MDU has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.29 (+12.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$20.83 -
$21.63
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.29)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.83 -
$21.63
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.64
Resistance Level
$22.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.60
Wall Street Target
$23.29
(+12.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-2.1%
Profit Margin
10.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.6 vs 20.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.57
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$20.42
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$20.28
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→20)
$20.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.2%)
$29.18
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.6, Growth: 8.2%)
$26.25
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.7, Growth: 8.2%)
$22.31
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.92
Bull Case
$26.17
(+26%)
Analyst growth 14.9%, PE expands to 24.8
Base Case
$23.79
(+15%)
Market implied 14.9%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$14.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.6 to 20.0
Stabilization Target:
$21.14
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 3:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Charles M Kelley
BUY
5000 shares
2026-02-13
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