UGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGI - UGI Corporation
$40.11
-0.49 (-1.21%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UGI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.92
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.24
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGI is currently trading at $40.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.06 to $39.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.87, while resistance sits at $41.34.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.87, while resistance sits at $41.34.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$37.06 -
$39.28
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($44.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.8% growth with -3.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.06 -
$39.28
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.87
Resistance Level
$41.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.90
Wall Street Target
$44.00
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.8%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.43
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$40.75
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$41.08
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$40.04
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.7%)
$93.80
(+134%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 7.7%)
$50.06
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 7.7%)
$42.55
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.09
Bull Case
$48.74
(+22%)
Analyst growth 9.1%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$44.31
(+11%)
Market implied 9.1%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$27.63
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 1:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UGI price and gamma walls.
