UGI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGI - UGI Corporation
$36.77
0.70 (1.94%)
▲
5d:
+0.38%
30d:
+0.27%
90d:
-1.76%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UGI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UGI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.38
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.15
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGI is currently trading at $36.77, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.23 to $37.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.50 (+21.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.46. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UGI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.50 (+21.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$36.23 -
$37.23
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.0% below Wall St target ($44.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$36.23 -
$37.23
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.25
Resistance Level
$37.46
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.83
Wall Street Target
$44.50
(+21.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-23.0%
Profit Margin
8.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.26
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$35.75
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$35.25
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$36.77
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 9.7%)
$92.17
(+151%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 9.7%)
$48.53
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 9.7%)
$41.25
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.69
Bull Case
$49.08
(+36%)
Analyst growth 26.2%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$44.61
(+24%)
Market implied 26.2%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$24.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$38.36
(+4.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 9:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jean Felix Tematio
SELL
12840 shares
2026-02-11
Joseph L Hartz
SELL
5000 shares
2025-12-17
Joseph L Hartz
SELL
15000 shares
2025-11-25
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