VRRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRRM - Verra Mobility Corporation Class A Common Stock
$19.30
-0.29 (-1.48%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VRRM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VRRM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.50
Based on 3.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.84
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRRM is currently trading at $19.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.83 to $22.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.2) compared to its historical average (16.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 38.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRRM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.71 (+48.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRRM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.18. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.71 (+48.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$21.83 -
$22.97
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VRRM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.8% below Wall St target ($28.71)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.5% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.83 -
$22.97
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.18
Resistance Level
$22.63
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.21
Wall Street Target
$28.71
(+48.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.1%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.2 vs 16.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.47
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$17.68
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$16.92
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$19.28
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 2.0%)
$32.18
(+67%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 2.0%)
$20.51
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 2.0%)
$17.43
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.22 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.36
Bull Case
$23.30
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$19.30
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$14.76
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 16.2
Stabilization Target:
$22.00
(+14.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.0%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 3:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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