Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $275 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$485 (2.1%) on $-485 credit (max loss $23,515), vs +$1,452 (5.6%) for 100 shares on $26,048. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $275. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | May 4 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $208 (-20%) | -$2,692 | -$2,648 | -$2,629 | -$2,677 |
| $221 (-15%) | -$1,690 | -$1,571 | -$1,434 | -$1,374 |
| $234 (-10%) | -$898 | -$725 | -$485 | -$72 |
| $247 (-5%) | -$328 | -$147 | +$103 | +$485 |
| $255 (-2%) | -$85 | +$81 | +$293 | +$485 |
| $260 (0%) โ spot | +$42 | +$193 | +$370 | +$485 |
| $266 (+2%) | +$145 | +$277 | +$419 | +$485 |
| $275 (+6%) โ target | +$278 | +$377 | +$463 | +$485 |
| $287 (+10%) | +$379 | +$441 | +$480 | +$485 |
| $300 (+15%) | +$438 | +$470 | +$484 | +$485 |
| $313 (+20%) | +$465 | +$481 | +$485 | +$485 |