Target Price Playground
AAPL
$260.48
๐ข
AAPL IV: 29.7% โ LOW
(-34.4% vs 30d avg of 45.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $230 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $260 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.05 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $230 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,895 (171.5%) on $1,105 risked, vs $-3,048 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $26,048. Options give 14.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $230 by Jun 19
+$1,895
+171.5% on $1,105 risked
Max Profit
+$24,895
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,105
Premium paid
Break-even
$248.95
-4.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
36%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.5 / -7.87 / 44.43
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | May 4 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $208 (-20%) | +$3,897 | +$3,927 | +$3,984 | +$4,057 |
| $221 (-15%) | +$2,707 | +$2,683 | +$2,691 | +$2,754 |
| $230 (-12%) โ target | +$1,989 | +$1,916 | +$1,861 | +$1,895 |
| $234 (-10%) | +$1,645 | +$1,546 | +$1,451 | +$1,452 |
| $247 (-5%) | +$759 | +$593 | +$375 | +$149 |
| $255 (-2%) | +$326 | +$136 | -$131 | -$632 |
| $260 (0%) โ spot | +$79 | -$119 | -$399 | -$1,105 |
| $266 (+2%) | -$136 | -$334 | -$611 | -$1,105 |
| $274 (+5%) | -$401 | -$588 | -$835 | -$1,105 |
| $287 (+10%) | -$713 | -$861 | -$1,023 | -$1,105 |
| $300 (+15%) | -$899 | -$1,001 | -$1,085 | -$1,105 |
| $313 (+20%) | -$1,003 | -$1,064 | -$1,101 | -$1,105 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.