Target Price Playground
AAPL
$260.48
๐ข
AAPL IV: 29.7% โ LOW
(-34.4% vs 30d avg of 45.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $290 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $260.48 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $290 by Jun 19: the long stock returns +$2,952 (11.3%) on $26,048 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Jun 19.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $290 by Jun 19
+$2,952
+11.3% on $26,048 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$26,048
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$260.48
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | May 12 | Jun 11 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $208 (-20%) | -$5,210 | -$5,210 | -$5,210 |
| $221 (-15%) | -$3,907 | -$3,907 | -$3,907 |
| $234 (-10%) | -$2,605 | -$2,605 | -$2,605 |
| $247 (-5%) | -$1,302 | -$1,302 | -$1,302 |
| $255 (-2%) | -$521 | -$521 | -$521 |
| $260 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $266 (+2%) | +$521 | +$521 | +$521 |
| $274 (+5%) | +$1,302 | +$1,302 | +$1,302 |
| $287 (+10%) | +$2,605 | +$2,605 | +$2,605 |
| $290 (+11%) โ target | +$2,952 | +$2,952 | +$2,952 |
| $300 (+15%) | +$3,907 | +$3,907 | +$3,907 |
| $313 (+20%) | +$5,210 | +$5,210 | +$5,210 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.