Target Price Playground
AAPL
$260.48
๐ข
AAPL IV: 29.7% โ LOW
(-34.4% vs 30d avg of 45.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $300 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $260 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.96 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $260 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.05 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $300 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$1,599 (66.6%) on $2,401 risked, vs +$3,952 (15.2%) for 100 shares on $26,048. Options give 4.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $300. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $300 by Jun 19
+$1,599
+66.6% on $2,401 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,401
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$284.01
+9.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
23%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.71 / -17.94 / 88.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | May 4 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $208 (-20%) | +$2,658 | +$2,649 | +$2,689 | +$2,761 |
| $221 (-15%) | +$1,582 | +$1,463 | +$1,405 | +$1,458 |
| $234 (-10%) | +$759 | +$491 | +$227 | +$156 |
| $247 (-5%) | +$290 | -$111 | -$621 | -$1,147 |
| $255 (-2%) | +$205 | -$245 | -$852 | -$1,928 |
| $260 (0%) โ spot | +$232 | -$233 | -$867 | -$2,353 |
| $266 (+2%) | +$324 | -$143 | -$770 | -$1,832 |
| $274 (+5%) | +$574 | +$129 | -$438 | -$1,051 |
| $287 (+10%) | +$1,254 | +$887 | +$489 | +$252 |
| $300 (+15%) โ target | +$2,218 | +$1,948 | +$1,710 | +$1,599 |
| $313 (+20%) | +$3,278 | +$3,085 | +$2,938 | +$2,857 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.