Target Price Playground
AAPL
$260.48
๐ข
AAPL IV: 29.7% โ LOW
(-34.4% vs 30d avg of 45.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $290 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
68d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $260 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.96 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $280 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.57 ยท ฮ 0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $290 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,161 (138.4%) on $839 risked, vs +$2,952 (11.3%) for 100 shares on $26,048. Options give 12.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (68 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $290. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $290 by Jun 19
+$1,161
+138.4% on $839 risked
Max Profit
+$1,161
If the stock โฅ $280 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$839
Net debit
Break-even
$268.39
+3.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 68d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
27.03 / -2.61 / 2.27
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | May 4 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $208 (-20%) | -$795 | -$824 | -$838 | -$839 |
| $221 (-15%) | -$716 | -$776 | -$829 | -$839 |
| $234 (-10%) | -$567 | -$653 | -$772 | -$839 |
| $247 (-5%) | -$342 | -$425 | -$581 | -$839 |
| $255 (-2%) | -$178 | -$241 | -$372 | -$839 |
| $260 (0%) โ spot | -$62 | -$104 | -$197 | -$791 |
| $266 (+2%) | +$57 | +$39 | -$4 | -$270 |
| $274 (+5%) | +$235 | +$254 | +$294 | +$511 |
| $287 (+10%) | +$508 | +$578 | +$719 | +$1,161 |
| $290 (+11%) โ target | +$573 | +$652 | +$805 | +$1,161 |
| $300 (+15%) | +$730 | +$823 | +$980 | +$1,161 |
| $313 (+20%) | +$893 | +$982 | +$1,099 | +$1,161 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.