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PARR Technical Alert

PARR Breaks Below $40 Support - Technical Breakdown Analysis

Breakdown

Summary

PARR has broken below a key support level at $39.87, currently trading at $35.36 (11.3% beyond the level). This technical breakout signals selling pressure and suggests potential downward pressure. The RSI at 27.9 indicates oversold conditions, which may present a contrarian opportunity. This is a 100-day trendline break, which is more significant than shorter-term breaks as it indicates a potential shift in the longer-term trend direction.

Technical Chart

PARR breakout chart

Breakout Analysis

When a stock breaks through an established support level with conviction, it often signals that the previous price barrier has been overcome. The 11.3% move beyond the support level indicates significant selling pressure.

Key Levels to Watch

Breakout Level$39.87
Current Price$35.36
Break Distance11.3%

Investment Advisor Score

53.0/100

SELL
Score as of 2025-12-22

Our AI-powered investment scoring system analyzes multiple factors including fundamentals, technicals, and market sentiment to generate this score.

Company Overview

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock

Par Pacific Holdings Inc is an oil and gas company that manages and maintains interests in energy and infrastructure businesses. The company has three reportable segments namely Refining, Under its refining business, the company produces ultra-low-sulfur diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, marine fuel, LSFO, and other associated refined products. Its Retail includes operation licenses out brands to serve the retail consumer.

Why This Matters

Energy sector stocks like PARR are heavily influenced by commodity prices and supply/demand dynamics. This breakout may reflect changing views on energy demand, production levels, or geopolitical factors that impact the sector.

The breakdown is particularly concerning given PARR's thin 3.1% margins. Companies with limited profitability have less buffer against headwinds, potentially amplifying downside moves.

Competitive Position & Moat

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) possesses a competitive moat primarily through its refining capabilities, which enable the production of high-demand products such as ultra-low-sulfur diesel and jet fuel. The scale of its operations allows for cost efficiencies and competitive pricing, while the established relationships with suppliers and distributors enhance its logistical advantages. However, the company's brand in retail licensing remains less prominent compared to larger competitors, which could limit market visibility. In terms of market position, Par Pacific primarily serves the U.S. West Coast and Hawaii, where it benefits from a strategic geographic footprint that mitigates transportation costs. The differentiated focus on refined products, particularly in niche segments like marine fuel and low-sulfur fuels, positions PARR favorably as regulatory standards evolve towards cleaner energy solutions. Nonetheless, Par Pacific faces potential risks, including volatility in crude oil prices, which could impact margins across its refining segment. Additionally, the competitive landscape is intensifying, with larger integrated oil companies advancing their logistics and retail capabilities. This could pose a threat, as market entrants may leverage technological advancements to improve efficiencies and market penetration.

Financial Health (SEC Data)

Based on the latest SEC filings, here's an analysis of PARR's financial position:

Profitability Analysis

Revenue$7.48B
Net Income$235.73M
Profit Margin3.1%

The 3.1% profit margin indicates modest profitability. The company is generating positive earnings but margins are relatively thin.

Options Market Insight

Unusual Activity Score1.6

Technical Indicators

RSI (14)27.9
MACD SignalBearish
50-Day SMA$40.97
200-Day SMA$40.01
Price vs MAsBelow both (Bearish)

Next Levels to Watch

50-Day SMA$40.97
200-Day SMA$40.01

Price has already broken below the 200-day SMA at $40.01, which is a bearish signal suggesting the longer-term trend may be turning down. Price is below the 50-day SMA at $40.97, confirming short-term bearish momentum.

Trading Considerations

  • Confirmation: Watch for sustained price action below $39.87
  • Volume: Look for volume confirmation on continued moves
  • Role Reversal: Broken level at $39.87 may now act as resistance
  • Risk Management: Always use stop-loss orders

Conclusion

PARR's break below the $39.87 support level represents a significant technical development. The bearish technical signal aligns with our investment score, suggesting caution.

Related Analysis for PARR


Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions.

Live Status REAL-TIME
$37.74
+1.27 (3%)
Since Alert ($35.36) Short Return
-6.7%

⚠️ Failed Breakdown: Price recovered above support.

AI Score Details
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Technical Health
RSI (14)
52.9
Neutral
Trend
Bearish
vs 50-Day MA

Technical Summary

Type: Breakdown
Break Distance: 11.3%
Price at Break: $35.36
Date: Dec 23, 2025
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Actionable Analysis

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