Summary
PARR has broken below a key support level at $39.87, currently trading at $35.36 (11.3% beyond the level). This technical breakout signals selling pressure and suggests potential downward pressure. The RSI at 27.9 indicates oversold conditions, which may present a contrarian opportunity. This is a 100-day trendline break, which is more significant than shorter-term breaks as it indicates a potential shift in the longer-term trend direction.
Technical Chart
Breakout Analysis
When a stock breaks through an established support level with conviction, it often signals that the previous price barrier has been overcome. The 11.3% move beyond the support level indicates significant selling pressure.
Key Levels to Watch
| Breakout Level | $39.87 |
| Current Price | $35.36 |
| Break Distance | 11.3% |
Investment Advisor Score
53.0/100
SELLOur AI-powered investment scoring system analyzes multiple factors including fundamentals, technicals, and market sentiment to generate this score.
Company Overview
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
Par Pacific Holdings Inc is an oil and gas company that manages and maintains interests in energy and infrastructure businesses. The company has three reportable segments namely Refining, Under its refining business, the company produces ultra-low-sulfur diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, marine fuel, LSFO, and other associated refined products. Its Retail includes operation licenses out brands to serve the retail consumer.
Why This Matters
Energy sector stocks like PARR are heavily influenced by commodity prices and supply/demand dynamics. This breakout may reflect changing views on energy demand, production levels, or geopolitical factors that impact the sector.
The breakdown is particularly concerning given PARR's thin 3.1% margins. Companies with limited profitability have less buffer against headwinds, potentially amplifying downside moves.
Competitive Position & Moat
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR) possesses a competitive moat primarily through its refining capabilities, which enable the production of high-demand products such as ultra-low-sulfur diesel and jet fuel. The scale of its operations allows for cost efficiencies and competitive pricing, while the established relationships with suppliers and distributors enhance its logistical advantages. However, the company's brand in retail licensing remains less prominent compared to larger competitors, which could limit market visibility. In terms of market position, Par Pacific primarily serves the U.S. West Coast and Hawaii, where it benefits from a strategic geographic footprint that mitigates transportation costs. The differentiated focus on refined products, particularly in niche segments like marine fuel and low-sulfur fuels, positions PARR favorably as regulatory standards evolve towards cleaner energy solutions. Nonetheless, Par Pacific faces potential risks, including volatility in crude oil prices, which could impact margins across its refining segment. Additionally, the competitive landscape is intensifying, with larger integrated oil companies advancing their logistics and retail capabilities. This could pose a threat, as market entrants may leverage technological advancements to improve efficiencies and market penetration.Financial Health (SEC Data)
Based on the latest SEC filings, here's an analysis of PARR's financial position:
Profitability Analysis
| Revenue | $7.48B |
| Net Income | $235.73M |
| Profit Margin | 3.1% |
The 3.1% profit margin indicates modest profitability. The company is generating positive earnings but margins are relatively thin.
Options Market Insight
| Unusual Activity Score | 1.6 |
Technical Indicators
| RSI (14) | 27.9 |
| MACD Signal | Bearish |
| 50-Day SMA | $40.97 |
| 200-Day SMA | $40.01 |
| Price vs MAs | Below both (Bearish) |
Next Levels to Watch
| 50-Day SMA | $40.97 |
| 200-Day SMA | $40.01 |
Price has already broken below the 200-day SMA at $40.01, which is a bearish signal suggesting the longer-term trend may be turning down. Price is below the 50-day SMA at $40.97, confirming short-term bearish momentum.
Trading Considerations
- Confirmation: Watch for sustained price action below $39.87
- Volume: Look for volume confirmation on continued moves
- Role Reversal: Broken level at $39.87 may now act as resistance
- Risk Management: Always use stop-loss orders
Conclusion
PARR's break below the $39.87 support level represents a significant technical development. The bearish technical signal aligns with our investment score, suggesting caution.
Related Analysis for PARR
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making trading decisions.