PARR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PARR - Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$58.30
-1.88 (-3.12%)
▼
5d:
-9.43%
30d:
-8.49%
90d:
+36.02%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PARR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PARR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.86
Based on -12.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PARR is currently trading at $58.30, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.50 to $65.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.3) compared to its historical average (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3869.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $56.11, while resistance sits at $70.39. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $72.00 (+23.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PARR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $56.11, while resistance sits at $70.39. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $72.00 (+23.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$60.50 -
$65.83
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.5% below Wall St target ($72.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$60.50 -
$65.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.11
Resistance Level
$70.39
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.31
Wall Street Target
$72.00
(+23.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3869.2%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 10.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.47
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$47.22
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$42.50
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→10)
$70.04
(+20%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -28.5%)
$148.64
(+155%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: -28.5%)
$42.50
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: -28.5%)
$36.13
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.78
Bull Case
$69.65
(+20%)
Analyst growth 5.2%, PE expands to 7.5
Base Case
$63.32
(+9%)
Market implied 5.2%, PE stable at 6.9
Bear Case
$40.92
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$96.08
(+64.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+64.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William Monteleone
SELL
108948 shares
2026-03-16
William Monteleone
SELL
99284 shares
2025-11-21
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