What is the fair value of AA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AA to be between $58.47 and $65.81. The current price is $72.06.

What is the analyst price target for AA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AA is $67.40. This implies a potential upside of -6.5% from current levels.

AA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AA - Alcoa Corporation

PRIMARY PRODUCTION OF ALUMINUM

$72.06

5.73 (8.64%) ▲

5d: +22.76%

30d: +12.88%

90d: +32.51%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your AA Gains

Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Apr 16, 2026 13d

Smart Money Accumulation

AA is down 8.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $50 2026-06-18 with 6,591 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →

Strength: 5.6/10

Get Alerted When AA Hits Your Target Price

Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move

You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.

100% Free No spam, ever Unsubscribe anytime

Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

Loading historical data...

💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AA is 9.5% above fair value ($65.81). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -1.7%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$74.24

Based on 1.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$46.10

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AA is currently trading at $72.06, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.47 to $65.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AA is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $70.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.6% recently.

Market Sentiment: AA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Fair Price Range $58.47 - $65.81

Company Quality Score 66/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 55.7%

Protect Your Profits

Holding AA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.5% above fair value)
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+8.6%)
BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($67.40)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $58.47 - $65.81

Current vs Fair Value EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $55.06

Resistance Level $70.50

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Apr 1, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 12.63

Wall Street Target $67.40 (-6.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -1.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 6.4%

Profit Margin 9.0%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.0% premium

PE vs Historical 12.6 vs 12.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $72.78 (+1%)

2-Year Target $73.51 (+2%)

3-Year Target $74.24 (+3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 13→12) PE COMPRESSION $72.31 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: -1.7%) $121.14 (+68%)

Base: (SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: -1.7%) $68.45 (-5%)

Bear: (PE: 10.7, Growth: -1.7%) $58.18 (-19%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 12.92 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.37

Bull Case $79.57 (+42%)

Analyst growth 28.1%, PE expands to 14.2

Base Case $72.34 (+29%)

Market implied 28.1%, PE stable at 12.9

Bear Case $38.39 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

Share & Embed Analysis

Found this analysis useful? Share it with your community or embed the live chart on your blog.

Tweet Reddit

bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.

Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 AM

🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now

Ticker	Score	Recommendation	Change %

See Full Scanner Results »

Technical Signals Check

Is AA showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Michael T. McCaul SELL 2026-01-13

Michael T. McCaul SELL 2025-10-27

View Insider Activity Scanner

Unlock Insider Activity

See real-time buying/selling by company executives for AA.

Create Free Account

Already have an account? Log In

Featured in Portfolios

AA is a key holding in these high-performance investment strategies.

Materials Momentum Score Based • +23.1% Return

Materials Improvers Score Based • +21.9% Return

Mining Improvers Score Based • +6.6% Return

Large Cap Improvers Score Based • +10.8% Return

Premium Quality Improvers Score Based • +22.1% Return

Over $100 Improvers Score Based • +6.4% Return

View All Strategies

Top Rated Aluminum Stocks

Top-rated stocks in Aluminum by analyst ratings.

Stock	Analyst Consensus	Analyst Target	Tradestie Score
CSTM Constellium Nv	STRONG BUY 5 analysts	$29	62 BUY

CSTM Constellium Nv

62 BUY

Advanced AA Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AA price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

More Analysis for AA

AA Technical Chart AA Price Prediction AA Earnings Date AA Investment Advisor AA Fair Price Analyzer AA Options Advisor AA Options Chain AA Options Analysis AA Competitors

Compare AA with Other Stocks

AA vs CENX

Create New Comparison

Tradestie