AAPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAPL - Apple Inc.
$259.48
1.20 (0.46%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
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68 traders called AAPL this week
94% bullish • 7 bearish
94% bullish • 7 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAPL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAPL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$318.74
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$197.91
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAPL is currently trading at $259.48, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $253.07 to $270.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.9) is in line with its historical norms (31.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 91.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAPL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $261.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $288.92 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAPL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $261.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $288.92 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$253.07 -
$270.13
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($288.92)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$253.07 -
$270.13
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$243.42
Resistance Level
$261.95
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.93
Wall Street Target
$288.92
(+11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
91.2%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.9 vs 31.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$250.66
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$242.14
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$233.90
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→31)
$259.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.9, Growth: 9.1%)
$337.31
(+30%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.1%)
$269.32
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 9.1%)
$228.93
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.46
Bull Case
$345.20
(+33%)
Analyst growth 22.4%, PE expands to 37.8
Base Case
$313.82
(+21%)
Market implied 22.4%, PE stable at 34.4
Bear Case
$174.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.9 to 31.0
Stabilization Target:
$288.01
(+11.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.0%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 2:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevan Parekh
SELL
4199 shares
2025-10-16
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SELL
43013 shares
2025-10-02
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SELL
47125 shares
2025-10-02
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