ADM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADM - Archer Daniels Midland Company
$67.31
0.39 (0.58%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ADM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$117.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.85
7.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADM is currently trading at $67.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.70 to $66.70. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.8) compared to its historical average (14.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $63.94, while resistance sits at $69.75.
Market Sentiment: ADM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $57.91. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $63.94, while resistance sits at $69.75.
Market Sentiment: ADM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $57.91. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$58.70 -
$66.70
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 13.5% above Wall St target ($57.91)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$58.70 -
$66.70
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.94
Resistance Level
$69.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.77
Wall Street Target
$57.91
(-13.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
489.1%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$69.26
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$71.69
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$74.20
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$66.80
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 25.4%)
$186.41
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 25.4%)
$131.85
(+97%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 25.4%)
$112.07
(+68%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.46
Bull Case
$127.87
(+90%)
Analyst growth 72.5%, PE expands to 30.1
Base Case
$116.24
(+73%)
Market implied 72.5%, PE stable at 27.4
Bear Case
$45.83
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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