AGRO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGRO - ADECOAGRO S.A.
$8.86
0.06 (0.68%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGRO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGRO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.47
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.23
13.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGRO is currently trading at $8.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.86 to $8.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.5) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGRO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.17, while resistance sits at $9.23.
Market Sentiment: AGRO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.25 (+16.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGRO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.17, while resistance sits at $9.23.
Market Sentiment: AGRO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.25 (+16.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$7.86 -
$8.79
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
64.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($10.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.1% growth with -35.5% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.86 -
$8.79
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.70
(7.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.17
Resistance Level
$9.24
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.45
Wall Street Target
$10.25
(+16.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-35.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-65.6%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 6.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.90
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$8.99
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$9.09
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.74
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 527.5%)
$102.67
(+1067%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: 527.5%)
$29.70
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 527.5%)
$25.24
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.23
Bull Case
$19.73
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.9
Base Case
$17.94
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 39.0
Bear Case
$6.10
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGRO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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