ALC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALC - Alcon Inc. Ordinary Shares
$75.35
1.68 (2.28%)
▲
5d:
+1.5%
30d:
-11.02%
90d:
-6.22%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.86
Based on -7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.10
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALC is currently trading at $75.35, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.03 to $83.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.9) compared to its historical average (33.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $95.31 (+26.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $73.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ALC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $95.31 (+26.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$75.03 -
$83.91
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.5% below Wall St target ($95.31)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$75.03 -
$83.91
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.12
Resistance Level
$77.01
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.93
Wall Street Target
$95.31
(+26.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.2%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.9 vs 33.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$69.77
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$64.61
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$59.83
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→34)
$75.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.9, Growth: -18.7%)
$54.93
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: -18.7%)
$45.59
(-40%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -18.7%)
$38.75
(-49%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.98
Bull Case
$114.43
(+54%)
Analyst growth 41.2%, PE expands to 40.9
Base Case
$104.03
(+40%)
Market implied 41.2%, PE stable at 37.2
Bear Case
$50.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.9 to 33.9
Stabilization Target:
$94.85
(+25.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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