ALGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGN - Align Technology Inc
$157.25
-3.28 (-2.04%)
▼
5d:
-6.83%
30d:
-15.01%
90d:
-15.81%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
ALGN is down 5.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $160 2026-06-18 with 1,034 OI. Call ratio: 71% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALGN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALGN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$246.72
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$153.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGN is currently trading at $157.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $166.54 to $187.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (14.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $156.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.07 (+33.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $156.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.07 (+33.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$166.54 -
$187.48
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALGN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.0% below Wall St target ($209.07)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.8% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$166.54 -
$187.48
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.85
(5.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.99
Resistance Level
$178.12
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.71
Wall Street Target
$209.07
(+33.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.9%
Profit Margin
10.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 14.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$150.17
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$143.42
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$136.96
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$157.32
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.9%)
$352.63
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 8.9%)
$203.10
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 8.9%)
$172.63
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.96
Bull Case
$353.17
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.6
Base Case
$321.06
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.9
Bear Case
$109.16
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 14.6
Stabilization Target:
$180.62
(+14.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Morici
SELL
7969 shares
2026-02-18
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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Advanced ALGN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALGN price and gamma walls.