What is the fair value of ALGN stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ALGN to be between $159.92 and $173.33. The current price is $187.60.

What is the analyst price target for ALGN?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ALGN is $194.07. This implies a potential upside of 3.4% from current levels.

ALGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ALGN - Align Technology Inc

ORTHOPEDIC, PROSTHETIC & SURGICAL APPLIANCES & SUPPLIES

$187.60

11.98 (6.82%) ▲

5d: +15.07%

30d: +12.46%

90d: +36.72%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Feb 6, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Apr 29, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ALGN is 8.2% above fair value ($173.33). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 8.2%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$241.16

Based on 6.1% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$149.74

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ALGN is currently trading at $187.60, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $159.92 to $173.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $188.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.8% recently.

Market Sentiment: ALGN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Fair Price Range $159.92 - $173.33

Company Quality Score 68/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 60.5%

Protect Your Profits

ALGN is technically overbought (RSI 72). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

View Profit Protection Plan

All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.2% above fair value)
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.8%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($194.07)
BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.6% growth with 1.8% revenue growth
CAUTION: Extended 8.2% above fair value - wait for pullback

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $159.92 - $173.33

Current vs Fair Value EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $154.83

Resistance Level $188.67

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Feb 6, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 15.37

Wall Street Target $194.07 (+3.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 1.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -49.7%

Profit Margin 9.5%

Valuation Premium vs History +1.6% premium

PE vs Historical 15.4 vs 14.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +1.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $190.60 (+2%)

2-Year Target $193.65 (+3%)

3-Year Target $196.75 (+5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→15) PE COMPRESSION $188.20 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.2%) $344.64 (+84%)

Base: (SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 8.2%) $237.50 (+27%)

Bear: (PE: 13.1, Growth: 8.2%) $201.88 (+8%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 28.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.15

Bull Case $383.46 (+104%)

Analyst growth 98.5%, PE expands to 31.4

Base Case $348.60 (+86%)

Market implied 98.5%, PE stable at 28.6

Bear Case $119.42 (-36%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: February 08, 2026 11:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:38 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

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Lisa C. McClain SELL 2025-09-11

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