ALDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALDX - Aldeyra Therapeutics, Inc.
$5.41
-0.02 (-0.37%)
▼
5d:
-2.35%
30d:
+15.85%
90d:
+6.71%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Feb 27, 2026
22d
Smart Money Distribution
ALDX is up 6.4% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $4 2026-03-20 with 3,121 OI. Put ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALDX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALDX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.99
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.34
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALDX is currently trading at $5.41, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.33 to $5.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.9) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALDX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.74, while resistance sits at $5.93.
Market Sentiment: ALDX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.67 (+78.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALDX is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.74, while resistance sits at $5.93.
Market Sentiment: ALDX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.67 (+78.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$4.33 -
$5.35
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 78.7% below Wall St target ($9.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$4.33 -
$5.35
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.74
Resistance Level
$5.93
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.87
Wall Street Target
$9.67
(+78.7%)
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.56
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$5.71
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$5.86
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$5.41
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Last updated: February 04, 2026 3:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen Machatha
SELL
22073 shares
2025-08-11
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