ALRS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALRS - Alerus Financial Corporation Common Stock
$24.62
0.26 (1.07%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALRS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALRS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.95
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.84
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALRS is currently trading at $24.62, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.61 to $24.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 150.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALRS is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$22.61 -
$24.33
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
20th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALRS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 20th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$22.61 -
$24.33
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.24
(5.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.20
Resistance Level
$25.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.94
Wall Street Target
$25.60
(+4.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-85.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
150.0%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.35
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$24.08
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$23.82
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$24.51
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.5%)
$72.15
(+193%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 5.5%)
$28.92
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 5.5%)
$24.59
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.89
Bull Case
$37.12
(+51%)
Analyst growth 41.8%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$33.75
(+37%)
Market implied 41.8%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$16.18
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$25.34
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 4:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALRS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ALRS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALRS price and gamma walls.
