Is AMGN stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AMGN is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: AMGN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of AMGN stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AMGN to be between $354.12 and $380.66. The current price is $349.00.

What is the analyst price target for AMGN?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AMGN is $350.55. This implies a potential upside of 0.5% from current levels.

AMGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AMGN - Amgen Inc

BIOLOGICAL PRODUCTS, (NO DISGNOSTIC SUBSTANCES)

$349.00

0.23 (0.07%) ▲

5d: -0.22%

30d: -10.09%

90d: +4.83%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 07, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

AMGN is down 4.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $305 2026-05-15 with 2,194 OI. Call ratio: 65% View Scanner →

Strength: 3.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMGN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 4.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$439.05

Based on 4.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$272.62

Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AMGN is currently trading at $349.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $354.12 to $380.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 112.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $344.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: AMGN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $354.12 - $380.66

Company Quality Score 58/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 52.4%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($350.55)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $354.12 - $380.66

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $344.95

Resistance Level $368.78

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.98

Wall Street Target $350.55 (+0.5%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 8.6%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 112.1%

Profit Margin 21.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 15.0 vs 15.5 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $344.93 (-1%)

2-Year Target $341.14 (-2%)

3-Year Target $337.39 (-3%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 15→16) $349.09 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.0%) $586.95 (+68%)

Base: (SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 4.0%) $392.53 (+13%)

Bear: (PE: 12.7, Growth: 4.0%) $333.65 (-4%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 24.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.23

Bull Case $626.00 (+79%)

Analyst growth 63.6%, PE expands to 26.9

Base Case $569.09 (+63%)

Market implied 63.6%, PE stable at 24.4

Bear Case $236.50 (-32%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 15.5

Stabilization Target: $360.87 (+3.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +3.5%

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Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

David Taylor SELL 2026-02-26

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-02-24

David Taylor SELL 2026-01-29

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