AMGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMGN - Amgen Inc
$350.15
1.38 (0.39%)
▲
5d:
+0.11%
30d:
-9.79%
90d:
+5.17%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AMGN is down 4.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $305 2026-05-15 with 2,194 OI. Call ratio: 65% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMGN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMGN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$439.05
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$272.62
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMGN is currently trading at $350.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $354.18 to $380.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 112.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $344.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMGN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $344.95. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$354.18 -
$380.65
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($350.55)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$354.18 -
$380.65
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$344.95
Resistance Level
$368.78
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.98
Wall Street Target
$350.55
(+0.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
112.1%
Profit Margin
21.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.0 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$344.93
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$341.14
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$337.39
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$349.09
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.0%)
$586.95
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 4.0%)
$392.53
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 4.0%)
$333.65
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.23
Bull Case
$626.00
(+79%)
Analyst growth 63.6%, PE expands to 26.9
Base Case
$569.09
(+63%)
Market implied 63.6%, PE stable at 24.4
Bear Case
$236.50
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$360.87
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Taylor
SELL
2026-02-26
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
David Taylor
SELL
2026-01-29
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Advanced AMGN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMGN price and gamma walls.
