AMPY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMPY - Amplify Energy Corp.
$6.22
-0.20 (-3.04%)
▼
5d:
-5.69%
30d:
+5.16%
90d:
+33.94%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMPY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMPY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.96
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.26
56.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMPY is currently trading at $6.21, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.64 to $6.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.3) compared to its historical average (13.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.02, while resistance sits at $6.78. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.12 (+42.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMPY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $6.02, while resistance sits at $6.78. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.12 (+42.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$5.64 -
$6.45
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 42.4% below Wall St target ($9.12)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.7% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$5.64 -
$6.45
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.02
Resistance Level
$6.78
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.28
Wall Street Target
$9.13
(+42.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-18.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.0%
Profit Margin
16.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 13.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.77
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.19
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.67
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→13)
$8.60
(+34%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 144.4%)
$66.38
(+936%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 144.4%)
$21.63
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 144.4%)
$18.39
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.03
Bull Case
$6.13
(-3%)
Analyst growth -14.6%, PE expands to 7.0
Base Case
$5.57
(-11%)
Market implied -14.6%, PE stable at 6.3
Bear Case
$4.43
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.3 to 13.4
Stabilization Target:
$11.79
(+84.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+84.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMPY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Clint D Coghill
SELL
242489 shares
2026-03-17
Clint D Coghill
SELL
501279 shares
2026-03-16
Clint D Coghill
SELL
256232 shares
2026-03-13
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