AMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMR - Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
$209.80
-11.26 (-5.09%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 27, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AMR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$284.46
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$176.63
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMR is currently trading at $209.80, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $206.24 to $238.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $205.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $205.27. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$206.24 -
$238.59
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AMR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($204.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.8% growth with -21.6% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.2% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$206.24 -
$238.59
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$17.59
(8.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$205.27
Resistance Level
$247.29
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.34
Wall Street Target
$204.50
(-7.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-21.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-95.6%
Profit Margin
-2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$227.25
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$233.61
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$240.15
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$220.55
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Kenneth S Courtis
BUY
53000 shares
2025-09-15
Kenneth S Courtis
BUY
55000 shares
2025-09-12
Jason E Whitehead
SELL
12004 shares
2025-08-12
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Advanced AMR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMR price and gamma walls.
