HCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCC - Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
$80.83
2.57 (3.28%)
▲
5d:
-4.75%
30d:
-26.7%
90d:
-12.05%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.74
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCC is currently trading at $80.83, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.71 to $101.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.3) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1918.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $90.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.50 (+30.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $90.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.50 (+30.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$85.71 -
$101.60
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.5% below Wall St target ($105.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.71 -
$101.60
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.90
Resistance Level
$110.39
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.31
Wall Street Target
$105.50
(+30.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1918.0%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.75
(0%)
2-Year Target
$80.67
(0%)
3-Year Target
$80.59
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$80.49
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.5%)
$193.07
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 7.5%)
$100.28
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 7.5%)
$85.24
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.61
Bull Case
$172.17
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.0
Base Case
$156.52
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.0
Bear Case
$53.22
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kelli K Gant
SELL
10000 shares
2026-01-12
Walter J Scheller
SELL
100000 shares
2026-01-12
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