APH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APH - Amphenol Corporation
$119.15
-4.47 (-3.62%)
▼
5d:
-8.82%
30d:
-18.42%
90d:
-13.3%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
21d
Smart Money Distribution
APH is up 3.1% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $105 2026-04-17 with 11,239 OI. Put ratio: 77% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: APH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: APH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$212.89
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$132.19
9.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APH is currently trading at $119.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $126.37 to $144.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.1) compared to its historical average (30.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 57.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $119.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: APH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $169.44 (+42.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $119.40. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: APH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $169.44 (+42.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$126.37 -
$144.87
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 42.2% below Wall St target ($169.44)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.8%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$126.37 -
$144.87
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$119.40
Resistance Level
$144.25
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.15
Wall Street Target
$169.44
(+42.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
49.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
57.6%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.2 vs 30.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.78
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$99.32
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$90.68
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→30)
$119.05
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.2, Growth: 17.4%)
$192.73
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.4%)
$186.04
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 17.4%)
$158.13
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.35
Bull Case
$214.15
(+64%)
Analyst growth 53.6%, PE expands to 41.6
Base Case
$194.68
(+49%)
Market implied 53.6%, PE stable at 37.8
Bear Case
$86.18
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.2 to 30.4
Stabilization Target:
$156.44
(+31.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
515281 shares
2026-02-12
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SELL
80000 shares
2025-12-02
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SELL
258000 shares
2025-11-11
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Advanced APH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APH price and gamma walls.
