APH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APH - Amphenol Corporation
$144.08
-5.50 (-3.68%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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2 traders called APH this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$183.42
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.89
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APH is currently trading at $144.08, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $136.89 to $152.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 30.1) compared to its historical average (33.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 102.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $140.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $140.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$136.89 -
$152.94
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($160.49)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$136.89 -
$152.94
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$140.00
Resistance Level
$167.04
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.11
Wall Street Target
$160.49
(+7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
53.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
102.1%
Profit Margin
18.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.1 vs 33.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$143.75
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$138.14
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$132.75
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→34)
$149.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.1, Growth: 12.3%)
$211.65
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.3%)
$156.76
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 12.3%)
$133.24
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.99
Bull Case
$266.76
(+85%)
Analyst growth 66.1%, PE expands to 53.7
Base Case
$242.51
(+68%)
Market implied 66.1%, PE stable at 48.8
Bear Case
$99.25
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.1 to 33.9
Stabilization Target:
$168.41
(+12.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.6%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Craig A Lampo
SELL
40076 shares
2025-08-25
David M Silverman
SELL
100000 shares
2025-08-25
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