TEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TEL - TE Connectivity plc
$197.44
-4.00 (-1.99%)
▼
5d:
-1.31%
30d:
-8.05%
90d:
-6.72%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
17d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TEL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TEL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$340.22
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$211.25
6.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TEL is currently trading at $197.44, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $201.60 to $215.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.7) compared to its historical average (18.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 7150.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $194.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TEL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $262.11 (+32.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TEL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $194.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TEL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $262.11 (+32.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$201.60 -
$215.38
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TEL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.8% below Wall St target ($262.11)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$201.60 -
$215.38
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$194.28
Resistance Level
$219.33
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.65
Wall Street Target
$262.11
(+32.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7150.0%
Profit Margin
15.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 18.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$187.37
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$177.81
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$168.75
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$197.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$388.32
(+97%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 12.2%)
$279.00
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 12.2%)
$237.15
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.80
Bull Case
$285.28
(+45%)
Analyst growth 28.7%, PE expands to 22.6
Base Case
$259.35
(+31%)
Market implied 28.7%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$136.98
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 18.3
Stabilization Target:
$230.89
(+16.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
9400 shares
2026-04-08
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-18
Shadrak W Kroeger
SELL
9400 shares
2026-03-02
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