ARLP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLP - Alliance Resource Partners LP
$27.91
-0.24 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
-2.75%
30d:
+3.45%
90d:
+20.82%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARLP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARLP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.03
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.13
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLP is currently trading at $27.91, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.67 to $28.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (9.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.02, while resistance sits at $29.45.
Market Sentiment: ARLP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $27.02, while resistance sits at $29.45.
Market Sentiment: ARLP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$26.67 -
$28.21
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($30.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$26.67 -
$28.21
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.17
(4.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.02
Resistance Level
$29.45
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.32
Wall Street Target
$30.33
(+7.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
389.7%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.9% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.25
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$30.39
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$31.57
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$28.14
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.6%)
$78.13
(+178%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 8.6%)
$36.09
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 8.6%)
$30.68
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.40
Bull Case
$34.93
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.6%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$31.75
(+14%)
Market implied 13.6%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$19.01
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
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