AROW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AROW - Arrow Financial Corp
$33.81
0.69 (2.07%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AROW is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AROW is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.57
12.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AROW is currently trading at $33.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.61 to $33.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$31.61 -
$33.08
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AROW? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$31.61 -
$33.08
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.98
(8.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.46
Resistance Level
$34.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.66
Wall Street Target
$33.50
(+1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.3%
Profit Margin
23.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.52
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$33.92
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$34.33
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$33.06
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 27.0%)
$156.82
(+373%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 27.0%)
$67.91
(+105%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 27.0%)
$57.73
(+74%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.06
Bull Case
$59.40
(+76%)
Analyst growth 66.5%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$54.00
(+60%)
Market implied 66.5%, PE stable at 15.7
Bear Case
$22.05
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 4:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
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BUY
5000 shares
2025-09-10
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BUY
10922 shares
2025-08-27
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BUY
1078 shares
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Advanced AROW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AROW price and gamma walls.
