AROW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AROW - Arrow Financial Corp
$33.57
0.22 (0.66%)
▲
5d:
+0.99%
30d:
+0.15%
90d:
+6.27%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AROW appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 216% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AROW appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 216% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.20
Based on 11.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.11
18.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AROW is currently trading at $33.57, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.45 to $33.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 216.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AROW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AROW is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AROW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$32.45 -
$33.91
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
15th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 15th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($35.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.45 -
$33.91
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.04
(3.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.38
Resistance Level
$33.87
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.75
Wall Street Target
$35.50
(+5.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
37.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
216.5%
Profit Margin
27.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 9.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.93
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$30.36
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$28.87
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$33.52
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 18.6%)
$161.57
(+381%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 18.6%)
$56.04
(+67%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 18.6%)
$47.64
(+42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.65
Bull Case
$57.80
(+74%)
Analyst growth 63.4%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$52.55
(+58%)
Market implied 63.4%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$21.87
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$38.97
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AROW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
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BUY
3035 shares
2025-12-24
Daniel James White
BUY
1644 shares
2025-11-10
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BUY
1620 shares
2025-11-04
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Advanced AROW Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AROW price and gamma walls.
