ARW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARW - Arrow Electronics, Inc.
$132.49
-0.42 (-0.32%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ARW is 8.0% above fair value ($122.68). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ARW is 8.0% above fair value ($122.68). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$180.82
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.28
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARW is currently trading at $132.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $111.03 to $122.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.2) compared to its historical average (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARW is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $133.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ARW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $108.25. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARW is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $133.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ARW has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $108.25. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$111.03 -
$122.68
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
9th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.9%
Protect Your Profits
ARW is technically overbought (RSI 76). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.0% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 9th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 18.6% above Wall St target ($108.25)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.4% growth which is achievable
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$111.03 -
$122.68
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.09
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.11
Resistance Level
$133.89
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.25
Wall Street Target
$108.25
(-18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 9.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$140.09
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$147.65
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$155.63
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$132.84
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 15.7%)
$408.63
(+207%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.2, Growth: 15.7%)
$206.09
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 15.7%)
$175.18
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.07
Bull Case
$184.04
(+39%)
Analyst growth 30.3%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$167.31
(+26%)
Market implied 30.3%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$87.32
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-21
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