ARW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARW - Arrow Electronics, Inc.
$136.29
-3.34 (-2.39%)
▼
5d:
-2.58%
30d:
-10.43%
90d:
+20.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Get Alerted When ARW Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$227.16
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$141.05
3.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARW is currently trading at $136.29, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $138.31 to $151.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 100.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $135.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARW has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARW is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $135.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARW has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$138.31 -
$151.70
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
9th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 9th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($137.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$138.31 -
$151.70
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.27
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$135.29
Resistance Level
$147.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.25
Wall Street Target
$137.50
(-1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
100.5%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$136.70
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$133.83
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$131.02
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$140.15
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.6%)
$495.31
(+255%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 13.6%)
$204.64
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 13.6%)
$173.94
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.93
Bull Case
$207.48
(+48%)
Analyst growth 38.0%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$188.61
(+35%)
Market implied 38.0%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$92.92
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$149.37
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ARW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
William F Austen
BUY
3960 shares
2026-02-19
Richard John Marano
SELL
2500 shares
2026-02-17
Carine Lamercie Jean-Cla…
SELL
4000 shares
2026-02-11
Top Rated Electronics & Computer Distribution Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Electronics & Computer Distribution by analyst ratings.
