ASM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASM - Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (Canada)
$5.81
-0.13 (-2.19%)
▼
5d:
+0.87%
30d:
-39.6%
90d:
-15.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ASM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ASM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.04
69.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASM is currently trading at $5.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.16 to $8.87. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.4) compared to its historical average (17.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 28.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 82.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.16, while resistance sits at $7.21.
Market Sentiment: ASM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.06 (+90.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $5.16, while resistance sits at $7.21.
Market Sentiment: ASM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.06 (+90.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$6.16 -
$8.87
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 90.4% below Wall St target ($11.06)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.16 -
$8.87
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.16
Resistance Level
$7.21
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.38
Wall Street Target
$11.06
(+90.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
82.9%
Profit Margin
28.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-28.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 17.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-28.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.23
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$4.71
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.24
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→17)
$11.48
(+98%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 139.5%)
$68.64
(+1082%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 139.5%)
$19.61
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 139.5%)
$16.67
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.17
Bull Case
$11.77
(+104%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.6
Base Case
$10.70
(+86%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.5
Bear Case
$3.64
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 17.3
Stabilization Target:
$15.74
(+171.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+171.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASM showing a specific setup today?
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