TFPM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFPM - Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
$31.56
-0.42 (-1.31%)
▼
5d:
-11.15%
30d:
-13.2%
90d:
-11.27%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TFPM is down 11.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TFPM is down 11.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.73
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFPM is currently trading at $31.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.16 to $35.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.7) compared to its historical average (25.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 147.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.75 (+33.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.75 (+33.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$32.16 -
$35.57
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.7% below Wall St target ($42.75)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.1% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.16 -
$35.57
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.12
Resistance Level
$36.12
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.71
Wall Street Target
$42.75
(+33.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
78.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
147.2%
Profit Margin
68.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.7 vs 25.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.71
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$27.60
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$25.64
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→26)
$31.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 2.9%)
$37.07
(+16%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 2.9%)
$34.79
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 2.9%)
$29.57
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.51
Bull Case
$38.48
(+20%)
Analyst growth 2.3%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$34.98
(+9%)
Market implied 2.3%, PE stable at 22.7
Bear Case
$23.26
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.7 to 25.8
Stabilization Target:
$39.84
(+24.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFPM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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