TFPM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TFPM - Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp.
$31.49
1.31 (4.34%)
▲
5d:
+11.79%
30d:
+1.81%
90d:
-12.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TFPM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.0% annual earnings decline despite 147% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TFPM appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.0% annual earnings decline despite 147% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.91
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TFPM is currently trading at $31.49, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.50 to $31.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.0) compared to its historical average (24.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 147.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TFPM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.25 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TFPM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: TFPM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.25 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$28.50 -
$31.01
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 31.0% below Wall St target ($41.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.50 -
$31.01
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.34
Resistance Level
$31.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.02
Wall Street Target
$41.25
(+31.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
78.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
147.2%
Profit Margin
68.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.0 vs 24.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.92
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$28.42
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$27.00
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→25)
$31.47
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.3%)
$35.98
(+14%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.0, Growth: 3.3%)
$34.72
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.9, Growth: 3.3%)
$29.51
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 19.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.51
Bull Case
$32.93
(+5%)
Analyst growth -0.8%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$29.94
(-5%)
Market implied -0.8%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$20.52
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.0 to 24.5
Stabilization Target:
$36.70
(+16.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:12 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is TFPM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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