AVPT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVPT - AvePoint, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$9.51
0.14 (1.49%)
▲
5d:
-1.04%
30d:
-9.51%
90d:
-32.22%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AVPT is down 6.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $10 2026-05-15 with 20 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVPT appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -12.5% annual earnings decline despite 500% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVPT appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -12.5% annual earnings decline despite 500% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.70
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.72
35.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVPT is currently trading at $9.51, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.84 to $10.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.5) compared to its historical average (29.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 500% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVPT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.63 (+74.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVPT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.63 (+74.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$9.84 -
$10.85
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 74.9% below Wall St target ($16.63)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.84 -
$10.85
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.24
Resistance Level
$10.59
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.54
Wall Street Target
$16.63
(+74.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
500.0%
Profit Margin
8.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 29.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.56
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.70
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.93
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→29)
$10.36
(+9%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 29.4%)
$23.57
(+148%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 29.4%)
$20.61
(+117%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 29.4%)
$17.51
(+84%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (69x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 68.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.15
Bull Case
$22.66
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 75.5
Base Case
$20.60
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 68.7
Bear Case
$7.00
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 58.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.5 to 29.2
Stabilization Target:
$14.21
(+49.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+49.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 11:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVPT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVPT price and gamma walls.
