AXR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXR - AMREP Corporation
$20.78
-0.66 (-3.08%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.43
Based on -1.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.31
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXR is currently trading at $20.78, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.18 to $21.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AXR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.00 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AXR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.00 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$19.18 -
$21.41
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$19.18 -
$21.41
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.43
Resistance Level
$21.89
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.94
Wall Street Target
$23.00
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-21.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-70.7%
Profit Margin
22.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 10.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.18
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$19.59
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$19.02
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$20.86
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -6.3%)
$38.37
(+85%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: -6.3%)
$17.11
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: -6.3%)
$14.54
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.95
Bull Case
$24.98
(+20%)
Analyst growth 7.2%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$22.71
(+9%)
Market implied 7.2%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$14.41
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$22.78
(+9.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.6%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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