BFST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFST - Business First Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock
$28.17
0.55 (1.99%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BFST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$39.37
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.44
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFST is currently trading at $28.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.20 to $27.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BFST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.70 (+16.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BFST has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.70 (+16.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$26.20 -
$27.52
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($32.70)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$26.20 -
$27.52
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.53
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.65
Resistance Level
$28.84
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.54
Wall Street Target
$32.70
(+16.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.5%
Profit Margin
28.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.94
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$27.72
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$27.50
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$28.33
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.6%)
$94.28
(+235%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 8.6%)
$36.11
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 8.6%)
$30.69
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.79
Bull Case
$35.06
(+24%)
Analyst growth 18.2%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$31.87
(+13%)
Market implied 18.2%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$18.33
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$29.02
(+3.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.0%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced BFST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BFST price and gamma walls.
