BFST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFST - Business First Bancshares, Inc. Common Stock
$27.04
0.21 (0.78%)
▲
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
-2.38%
90d:
+1.77%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BFST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BFST shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.70
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.41
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFST is currently trading at $27.04, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.21 to $27.60. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BFST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.88 (+21.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFST is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.44. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BFST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.88 (+21.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$26.21 -
$27.60
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.6% below Wall St target ($32.88)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$26.21 -
$27.60
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.46
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.68
Resistance Level
$27.44
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.27
Wall Street Target
$32.88
(+21.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.6%
Profit Margin
28.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.66
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$26.29
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$25.92
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$26.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 8.1%)
$92.32
(+241%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 8.1%)
$34.16
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 8.1%)
$29.03
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.79
Bull Case
$33.28
(+24%)
Analyst growth 17.2%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$30.25
(+13%)
Market implied 17.2%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$17.55
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$28.12
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 2:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:00 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark P Folse
SELL
4854 shares
2026-02-10
Mark P Folse
SELL
5146 shares
2026-02-09
Donald Chad Carter
SELL
3778 shares
2026-01-29
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