BGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BGS - B&G Foods, Inc.
$5.10
-0.11 (-2.11%)
▼
5d:
+4.08%
30d:
-3.95%
90d:
+11.6%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BGS shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.09
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.03
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BGS is currently trading at $5.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.97 to $5.45. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.7) compared to its historical average (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.78, while resistance sits at $5.32.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGS is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.78, while resistance sits at $5.32.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$4.97 -
$5.45
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($4.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$4.97 -
$5.45
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.78
Resistance Level
$5.32
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.73
Wall Street Target
$4.75
(-6.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-65.9%
Profit Margin
-2.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 8.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.87
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$4.64
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$4.43
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$5.10
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.3%)
$19.26
(+278%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 9.3%)
$6.66
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 9.3%)
$5.66
(+11%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$5.87
(+15.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew D Vogel
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-13
David L Wenner
SELL
19500 shares
2026-03-13
Martin C Schoch
SELL
11321 shares
2026-03-12
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