BSRR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BSRR - Sierra Bancorp
$33.92
0.27 (0.80%)
▲
5d:
+1.25%
30d:
-6.14%
90d:
+3.16%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BSRR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BSRR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.71
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.38
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BSRR is currently trading at $33.92, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.74 to $35.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BSRR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.25 (+16.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $34.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BSRR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.25 (+16.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$32.74 -
$35.84
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($39.25)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.74 -
$35.84
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.36
Resistance Level
$34.28
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.91
Wall Street Target
$39.25
(+16.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
28.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 9.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.84
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$32.05
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$31.28
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$33.70
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 5.5%)
$99.03
(+194%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 5.5%)
$39.48
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 5.5%)
$33.56
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.11
Bull Case
$43.34
(+30%)
Analyst growth 21.4%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$39.40
(+18%)
Market implied 21.4%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$22.07
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$36.25
(+7.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 4:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BSRR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie G Castle
SELL
250 shares
2026-02-13
James C Holly
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-05
Julie G Castle
SELL
750 shares
2026-02-05
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