BTE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BTE - Baytex Energy Corp.
$3.43
-0.06 (-1.72%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BTE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BTE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.22
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.86
11.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BTE is currently trading at $3.43, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.18 to $3.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $3.21, while resistance sits at $3.63.
Market Sentiment: BTE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BTE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $3.21, while resistance sits at $3.63.
Market Sentiment: BTE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$3.18 -
$3.40
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($3.68)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.9% growth with -12.3% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$3.18 -
$3.40
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.22
Resistance Level
$3.63
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.46
Wall Street Target
$3.68
(+5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-82.6%
Profit Margin
7.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.59
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$3.70
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$3.80
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$3.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 194.7%)
$21.07
(+504%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 194.7%)
$11.78
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 194.7%)
$10.01
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$5.31
(+55%)
Analyst growth 40.0%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$4.83
(+41%)
Market implied 40.0%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$2.35
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BTE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BTE price and gamma walls.
